Daily scan of 13 Xueqiu influencers on 2026-08-18 (Tuesday). Today: 12/13 covered (Youmei not retrievable — generic screen name). Backdrop: the A-share tape keeps ‘rebounding into resistance, rallying without volume’ — on Aug 14 the market printed 2,428 advancers vs 3,006 decliners on RMB 2.14tn turnover (down ~RMB 41bn from the prior day), with semiconductors ~17% off the bottom but still range-bound at highs; the convertible-bond equal-weight valuation sat at 114.0 (still near its historical peak) and high-premium LOFs repayed en masse (Global Chip LOF -10% at 18% premium, SDIC Silver -6.77% at 18.5%, Southern Oil -9.26% at 7.82%). Innovative drugs took over from AI as the day’s lead story, but the move had already narrowed to a handful of core names by intraday — watch the late-stage catch-up. Key threads today. First, Zhengqq closed the loop on factor decay (Aug 16): pushed on ‘5yr+ high-ROE plus low valuation’ he flatly said ‘useless, alpha near zero’, reaffirming his Aug 15 nullification of three screens (pure ROE, low-valuation+ROE, revenue/profit growth) — yet flagged that simple high-dividend delivered a 6-7% annualised excess, the only strategy that actually worked; paired with his Aug 14 ‘holding great companies long in A-shares is far harder than it sounds’ and Jul 28 ‘won’t touch anything hyped this cycle for 3-5 years’, the message is: A-shares are too cyclical for static factors, and only high-dividend + mean-reversion is replicable — his own playbook ‘changes every year’. Second, Shan Xing pushed copper supply one layer deeper (Aug 15): on top of the ‘Chinese-listed output +280% vs flat ex-China’ gap, he added that years of mining have shifted many copper mines from open-pit to underground, raised extraction cost and cycle, and thinned high-grade reserves — ‘even foreign mines will be slow’ — so with Freeport cutting its guidance and Grasberg’s restart underwhelming, 2026 global copper output is likely negative; this is the most physically-grounded supply-rigidity case for the resource theme. Third, Duan Yongping’s Q2 13F is now fully digested (Aug 17): H&H International Investment held ≈$19.1bn across 19 names — top 3 Apple 41.05%, Berkshire Hathaway B 24.18% (no.2, i.e. a quarter of the book parked in Buffett’s cash pile), PDD 9.99%; he cut Nvidia -54.63% (3rd→5th), Google -46.88%, Microsoft -25.78%, and fully exited TSMC and CrowdStrike, while adding PDD +26.71% (2nd consecutive quarter) and new Alibaba 301.4k shares (cleared in Q1, bought back in Q2). Net: lower US-AI hardware exposure, more China e-commerce + cash equivalents — consistent with his late-Jul/early-Aug ‘sell calls for premium’, ‘quant is zero-sum’, ‘be a farmer not a hunter’ framing. Elsewhere: Guan Wocai on Tencent’s interim (strong revenue, weak cash flow, buybacks/dividends hard to look good) and Wuliangye’s ‘most awkward position’ with old-economy growth scarce; HIS1963 in holding silence (life posts only, still bag-holding ‘oil’); qzy69’s ‘bull market but I wouldn’t dare’ (sell-house-to-trade) and ‘gjd’s band training makes everyone want to swing’; Taotie Hai’s convertible equal-weight 114.0 and LOF delisting by 2027-12-31; Xiao Kashu’s ‘head-trimming’ phase for new converts, bubble contraction at ~half tenor, preference for >1.5yr small-cap converts, and only ~7% YTD; Liuyi Jushi’s valuation table V2.2 (strong-cycle: look at PB, bond sleeve ~40% short-duration); Erniao Shuo’s Issue 187 (K-shape convergence) and micro-cap strategy read; Zhang Yizhen’s max-drawdown as FOMO-breaker; Chaoji Ludinggong’s July game account +14.46% on electrolytic-aluminum excess; Youmei remains not retrievable.
- Chaoji Ludinggong
- Liuyi Jushi
- Guan Wocai
- qzy69
- HIS1963
- Zhengqq
- Erniao Shuo
- Zhang Yizhen
- Taotie Hai
- Shan Xing
- Xiao Kashu
- Youmei — not retrievable today (generic screen name)
- Dadao Wuxing(Duan Yongping)
